Yesterday's MBS Action

A chart of yesterday's pricing action in the FNMA 5.0 coupon, from the Mortgage News Daily's MBS blog


Wednesday's movement is from the middle of the chart on (1st half is Tuesday). Traders were on a shopping spree in the morning and rates improved to the best levels we've seen since 2003 (just under 5%). But within 15 minutes the buyers remorse kicked in and prices fell precipitously for the next 2 hours and continued to trade down for the remainder of the day. Our sub-5% rates had come and gone in a blink of an eye.

Some material to chew on:

Paulson Denies Rumored 4.5% Mortgage Rate Plan (Housing Wire, 12/17)

Jim Cramer seems to think we'll see 3.5% rates - Cramer's Stop Trading (Seeking Alpha, 12/16). Then he said on Mad Money (12/17) that "Benjamin Booyah Bernanke" will "take mortgage rates down to 4%, I'm telling you, that's where they're going to go." For those who follow or know of Cramer, a statement like this is no surprise. Jim likes to entertain, he often changes his tune, and he has quite a few critics.

And even with the FED buying MBS, not all lenders are able to meet the increased demand for loans - Mortgage Rates Left In Dust By Treasury Yields, Failed Lenders (Bloomberg 12/18)

A Perspective Behind The FED's Plan To Lower Mortgage Rates, aka The MBS Bailout

In his most recent post, Brad Setser doesn't specifically address the FED's recent action in the Agency MBS market (remember the FED's $500b MBS purchase program?), but he does provide some great analysis of the numbers that are behind the FED's move.

From one of my new favorites, Brad's Follow The Money blog:

This is what a crisis looks like in the balance of payments data, 12/15/08

[Agency - Fannie, Freddie, Ginnie Mae]

"So much for talk that central banks are always a stabilizing presence the market. They clearly have destabilized the Agency market. The fall in demand for Agencies over the past three months — and most Agency demand has come from central banks until recently — has been sharper than than the fall in demand for US corporate bonds (think securitized subprime mortgages, the category “corporate bonds” in the BoP data includes asset-backed securities) after the crisis of last August."

"The Agency market is a rather important market. Increased lending by the Agencies offset the fall in demand for “private” mortgage-backed securities after the crisis last August. More recently, the absence of a “central bank bid” has kept
Agency spreads wide even after the US Treasury bailout of Freddie and Fannie. And that in turn has pushed the US to adopt other measures to bring down long-term mortgage rates. The Fed and the Treasury are literally now buying the Agencies that foreign central banks are selling. Action, reaction …"

Earlier in the same post, Brad points out "[foreign investors added] $400 billion in demand for safe dollar denominated assets [T-bills, T-bonds]. If that kind of monthly inflow is annualized it is a shockingly large number. It allowed foreigners to reduce their holdings of Agencies by close to $75 billion (including a $25 billion fall in short-term Agencies), their holdings of long-term corporate bonds by $13 billion and their holdings of US equities by $6 billion without causing any strain on the dollar."

According to Brad, that's $75b just in October. I'm sure numbers like these make the FED and Treasury nervous.

Bair's On Board With Obama

This morning's story on Bank.com's blog:

Sheila Bair Encouraged By Barack Obamas Foreclosure Ideas

"The chairperson of the FDIC, Sheila Bair, has been pushing an aggressive plan, modeled off of what was tried when IndyMac went under, to help stop foreclosures. Her efforts, though, have been running into opposition from the Treasury Secretary, Henry Paulson, as well as other prominent members of the Bush Administration. The current administration seems reluctant to fund such a comprehensive plan aimed at helping individual homeowners. Now, though, it seems as though she can bide her time and wait for a Barack Obama administration. Maybe Timothy Geithner will be a more compatible and understanding Treasury Secretary."

Bair has been standing out on a limb for some time now with her forward thinking ideas about mortgage modifications. As we discussed in an August post, Indy Mac's failure and quick takeover by FDIC in August provided Bair and team an opportunity to do things her way. The success or failure of the modification program is yet to be seen, but I'd be very surprised if President-elect Obama didn't keep her on board to see it through (and possibly help implement it with other banks/lenders).

Mortgage rates may return to pre-Frannie bailout levels by next week

Fannie Mae 30yr 5.5

X axis - date, Y axis - price (lower prices = higher rates)

It seems that Paulson & Co. managed to save his former employer (Goldman Sachs) and many other Wall Street firms with the most recent rescue plans. The stock markets are cheering. But the FNMA MBS market is not taking this well. The reversal we're witnessing has essentially wiped out the improvements we saw right after the announcement of the the Fannie & Freddie bailout. I expect we'll see an increase of 1/8 to 1/4% in mortgage rates today, and if this trend continues I wouldn't be surprised to see the 30yr fixed rate rise above 6.25% in the next week or two. But if there's something that the current market is teaching us, things can change in a heartbeat.

If you're still floating your mortgage rate, you may want to contact your loan officer ASAP to get some advice.

The Right Man at the Right Time

By now most know about the Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac "bailout". It's been blogged, reported & commented about for months. So if you didn't catch it on every major news channel & site this morning, you will.

While some are questioning whether the largest bailout in US history was really necessary, most (experts) say that it was and the fallout from other options (receivership or equity injection) would have been worse.

Paulson: "We had no choice"


And former Secretary of Treasury John Snow said it best on Squawk Box this morning (interviewed in front of the Rotunda at UVA), "This action was necessary in the face of the realities of the financial markets, the need to stabilize housing and the larger issues of the US economy and it's spill over affects on the rest of the world. So we are where we are, I guess now the question is can we find a good path out of this so that we get a permanent solution coming out of the next congress..."


Realty Check (CNBC) on the the housing market will react.
Questions is, "How much and how soon"
Mark Zandi of Moody's Economy, "It will help the housing market, it won't bring an end to the housing downturn immediately though."


I truly feel sorry for the thousands of employees at Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac. This is like Enron times two. "Fannie Mae’s workers had $116 million in the employee stock ownership plan at the end of 2006. Today, it’s more like $17.5 million. Ouch."